Both Dole, Clinton Have Reasons To Worry, Say UF Political Scientists

August 9, 1996

GAINESVILLE — The Republican National Convention will be so watered down that much of the viewing public will turn it off, robbing Bob Dole of needed visibility, says Kenneth Wald, a University of Florida political science professor.

Meanwhile, President Clinton isn’t doing much better in his campaign, says Larry Dodd, an eminent scholar in political science. He shot himself in the foot by signing the Republican welfare reform bill. Clinton may have improved his re-election chances, but he undercut his chances of governing effectively in his second term, Dodd suggests.

Dole’s problems are more imminent. The GOP convention is so scripted — with tight limits on the length on speeches and no forum for Pat Buchanan — that it will lack the viewer appeal of past conventions, Wald says.

Dole’s resolution of the debate over the abortion plank in the Republican platform is a mixed bag, Wald says. While it prevented discord during the convention, it was a cave-in to social conservatives and probably will hurt Dole with moderate and swing voters in November.

Dodd, on the other hand, says Clinton blundered on welfare reform. By signing the welfare reform package that Congress passed before it recessed, Clinton bolstered the Republican Party’s chances of retaining control of Congress, he says.

“Clinton stopped the momentum the Democrats had since the budget standoff,” Dodd says. “Democratic congressional candidates won’t be in a position to paint their opponents as extremists. They won’t be able to say ‘you can’t trust Republicans to act responsibly in meeting social needs.’”

If Republicans maintain control of Congress, not only could they thwart Clinton’s

legislative agenda but they could also continue to cloud the Clinton presidency, including keeping the Whitewater investigation alive, Dodd says.

“Winning re-election doesn’t mean one can govern,” he says.

The president apparently signed the welfare bill because he feared GOP campaign spots proclaiming that he vetoed three such reform bills, Dodd says. “Clinton’s obsession with a few negative spots frightened him into abandoning core principles that are the soul of the Democratic Party.”

Those principles are that America should provide a safety net for people in need. The welfare reform bill pulls away that safety net, Dodd says.

Clinton could have withstood GOP criticism if he had been firm on welfare reform, Dodd says. “He had the pulpit from which to preach that the Republicans had failed to deliver on workable and fair welfare reform.

“He had little to fear from a 73-year-old candidate from a heavily divided party who was 15 to 20 points behind.”

Minorities, women and working class people — the core of the Democratic Party’s support — go into the upcoming convention robbed of the enthusiasm they might have had. “The convention will be tepid coronation,” Dodd says, “not a call to arms and the Democrats’ fall campaign could be lackluster.”