UF Study: Migration, Mortality And Fertility Trends Slow Growth

March 15, 2000

GAINESVILLE — Fewer births, rising deaths and the lure of other states will slow the rate of Florida’s population boom in the next 30 years, a new University of Florida study finds.

The upcoming April 1 census will count about 15.6 million Floridians, a gain of more than 2.5 million people since 1990, and each of the next three decades will experience roughly the same growth of about 2.5 million, predicts June Nogle, a demographer at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

As the state’s population ages, there are more deaths — a record 157,160 in 1998 — and relatively fewer children to replace the departed, Nogle said.

“Women who were having a lot of babies in 1990 were raising their families by the late 90s,” she said. “That’s why the elementary schools are so crowded, because today’s children in third and fourth grades are the ones who were born in the early 90s.” The coming wave of retiring baby boomers won’t benefit Florida as much as past generations because states such as Georgia, North Carolina are now attracting retireees, Nogle said. Texas especially grew faster than Florida in the 1990s, pulling people from both the United States and abroad, she said.

With coastal retirement a big amenity and Florida’s beachfront property getting built out, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are drawing people to their Gulf Coasts, she said.

The UF population study, which projects to 2030 for the first time, finds that Florida will have about 23.1 million residents that year, up nearly 50 percent since 2000, she said.

“Reasons for Florida’s slow and steady growth boil down to the big three of migration, mortality and fertility,” Nogle said. Despite the modest expansion of the state as a whole, Florida counties vary dramatically in growth, with population change in some mid-sized counties expected to be especially rapid, Nogle said. Flagler County’s population, for example, is projected to leap from 48,000 in 2000 to almost 107,000 in 2030, a 123 percent increase and the sharpest of any Florida county, she said.

Being on the Atlantic coast and sandwiched between the Jacksonville and Daytona Beach metro areas, Flagler county is an ideal spot for growth, Nogle said. “It’s almost a metro spillover county,” she said. “While it might be too far for commuting, it’s a nice location for retiring, and is close enough to an airport, concerts and another amenities.”

Osceola, Sumter, Collier and Walton counties also are predicted to grow extremely rapidly; the 2030 populations of all four are expected to increase by 85 percent or more over their 2000 figures, Nogle said.

“Sumter has done a massive job promoting itself as an industrial destination, using cost of living and economic advantages to try to encourage its own growth,” she said.

Although Collier County, home to Naples, is a popular retiree destination, it has also experienced a boom in younger residents, Nogle said. In many ways, retiree migration acts as an economic kickstart for young people to move in and fill the needs of businesses in serving an elderly population, she said.

In sheer numbers, second-largest Broward county, is projected to grow the most, by 725,000 over the next 30 years, Nogle said. Miami-Dade, the most populous county, is forecast to gain about 698,000 new residents by 2030, she said.

Orange, Palm Beach and Hillsborough round out the top five counties with the largest projected population increases; all three are expected to add at least 400,000 people by 2030, she said.

Although 36 of Florida’s 67 counties are forecast to grow by at least 50 percent during the next 30 years,15 counties are anticipated to gain less than 10,000 people.

Predictions call for Hardee, Taylor, Lafayette and Glades counties to grow by less than 5,000 residents over the next 30 years. Hardee, Pinellas and Taylor counties are expected to expand at the slowest rate between 2000 and 2030, increasing by less than 20 percent. None of the counties in Florida are projected to decline.